Science

1.5°C Climate Timeline 2015–2030: Have We Already Crossed the Paris Limit?

1.5°C refers to how much Earth's long-term average surface temperature has warmed above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial reference — not Earth's absolute temperatu…

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PARIS AGREEMENT

The world agrees on 1.5°C at COP21

In December 2015, governments agreed to hold warming 'well below 2°C' above pre-industrial levels and to 'pursue efforts' to limit it to 1.5°C. Paris set 1.5°C as an amb…

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IPCC 1.5°C REPORT

IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

The IPCC set out the concrete differences between 1.5°C and 2°C of warming — coral reefs, Arctic sea ice, sea level, heat extremes, food and water. It made 'half a degre…

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RECORD WARMTH

A strong El Niño pushes anomalies to new highs

A strong El Niño developed through 2023, adding a temporary spike on top of human-caused warming and driving monthly global temperature anomalies to record levels in the…

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12 MONTHS ABOVE 1.5°C

A rolling year averages about 1.64°C (ERA5)

For July 2023 through June 2024, Copernicus ERA5 recorded a global average of roughly 1.64°C above 1850–1900, with 12 consecutive months at or above 1.5°C in that datase…

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FIRST CALENDAR YEAR

2024 assessed at about 1.55°C above 1850–1900

Combining the major global datasets, WMO put 2024 at approximately 1.55°C ±0.13°C above the pre-industrial average — the warmest year on record and likely the first full…

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TREND MONITOR

Copernicus extrapolation points to about May 2029

The Copernicus Global Temperature Trend Monitor estimated current long-term warming at about 1.25°C. Extending its 30-year linear trend forward, the tool indicated 1.5°C…

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A COOLER YEAR

2025 comes in around 1.43°C

WMO put 2025 at about 1.43°C above 1850–1900 (Copernicus recorded roughly 1.42°C) — the second or third warmest year on record depending on the dataset. The step down fr…

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2026–2030 OUTLOOK

WMO: 91% chance of a temporary exceedance

WMO's annual-to-decadal update predicts annual temperatures for 2026–2030 in a range of about 1.3°C to 1.9°C above 1850–1900. It gives a 91% chance at least one year tem…

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