Technology

US-China AI Cold War Timeline 2026-2030

The US-China AI Cold War is strategic competition over the whole AI stack - chips, manufacturing, cloud, data centers, energy, minerals, standards and alliance…

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FOUNDATIONS

Trade conflict and the EUV line

A US-China trade conflict, restrictions on Huawei and rising technology-security concerns set the stage. From around 2019, US pressure and coordination with the Netherla…

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CHIP CONTROLS

Advanced AI chips become a national-security issue

The US imposed sweeping restrictions targeting advanced computing chips, chipmaking equipment and China's advanced-node capabilities - a foundational milestone. Controls…

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DEEPSEEK EFFECT

Chinese AI models change the debate

Efficient, low-cost models from DeepSeek and other Chinese labs - many released as open-weight - challenged assumptions about how much compute frontier AI needs and how…

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PAX SILICA

The US launches its supply-chain alliance

The US launched Pax Silica with seven founding signatories - the US, UK, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia and Israel - to build trusted supply chains for semicon…

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H200 RULE

US shifts China AI-chip licensing to case-by-case

A BIS final rule moved licence review for the Nvidia H200, AMD MI325X and comparable China-bound chips from presumption of denial to case-by-case review, subject to perf…

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NO-EUV WORKAROUND

Huawei presents LogicFolding and the Tau Scaling Law

Huawei presented an architecture that stacks logic layers in three dimensions to raise transistor density - a claimed 53% - without EUV lithography, targeting '1.4nm-cla…

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CHINA'S FRAMEWORK

Beijing launches WAICO; weighs model-export limits

On 16 July, 29 countries signed the agreement creating the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, headquartered in Shanghai and aimed at the Global Sout…

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ALLIANCE RACE

US drafts a letter pressing partners to choose

Reuters reported that the US State Department had drafted a letter to the 35 AI Opportunity Statement signatories, warning that Pax Silica participation cannot be combin…

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POROUS BLOCS

Nvidia's scale, and the world not splitting in two

Nvidia reported about $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue with a next-quarter guide that assumes no China compute. Yet on the same days Tencent released a new open-source…

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WHAT TO WATCH

Watchpoints and scenarios through 2030

Watch: the next US chip-control revision, whether the 'choose sides' letter is finalised, the next Chinese accelerator generation, EUV-alternative validation, Pax Silica…

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