US Elections 2024 to the 2026 Midterms: Trump's Win, the Polls and What to Watch
One page that follows the US election cycle from Donald Trump's November 2024 victory to the 3 November 2026 midterms: a dated timeline, how approval and the generic ballot have moved, what the off-year elections showed, how new maps change the House, and the races that decide the Senate.
Last updated 22 Oct 2026. Every figure links to its source; polls and forecasts are snapshots and can change daily.
The cycle at a glance
How it started
Donald Trump won the 2024 election with 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris's 226, took all seven swing states, and Republicans held both chambers of Congress. [1][2]
Timeline: November 2024 to Election Day 2026
The main events, in order. Filter by type.
- 5 Nov 2024
- 20 Jan 2025Polls
Second term begins
Approval starts around 47–49% (Gallup 47%; the 538 average on 31 Jan 2025 was 49% approve, 44% disapprove). [5]
- 29 Aug 2025Maps & courts
Texas enacts a new congressional map
Estimated +5 Republican seats. Opens the mid-decade redistricting race. [4]
- 28 Sep 2025Maps & courts
Missouri map signed
Estimated +1 Republican seat, but the old map stays for 2026 after court and referendum fights. [4]
- 1 Oct – 12 Nov 2025Events
Record-long federal shutdown
The shutdown lasted 43 days, the longest in US history, before the House voted to end it. [15]
Read the full AiTimeline story → - 12 Oct 2025Polls
Approval near 37%
RealClearPolitics average: 37.3% approve, 55.4% disapprove (net −18.1). [5]
- 4 Nov 2025
- 4 Dec 2025Maps & courts
Supreme Court lets the Texas map stand
A 6–3 order stays the lower-court ruling, so the map is used in 2026. [4]
- 11 Dec 2025Maps & courts
Indiana Senate rejects a new map
21 Republicans joined all Democrats in voting no. [4]
- 4 Feb 2026Maps & courts
Prop 50 survives at the Supreme Court
The Court declines the Republican appeal. California's map is worth an estimated +5 Democratic seats. [4]
- 28 Feb 2026Events
US-Israel war on Iran begins
Polls link rising petrol and diesel prices to falling approval. [6]
Read the full AiTimeline story → - 7 Apr 2026Elections
Wisconsin and Georgia results
Liberal Chris Taylor wins the Wisconsin Supreme Court seat 60–40. Republican Clay Fuller holds GA-14 with 56%, in a district Trump won by nearly 40 points. [8]
- 21 Apr – 8 May 2026Maps & courts
Virginia redraw approved, then struck down
Voters approve it with 51.6%; the state Supreme Court voids it on 8 May and the old map stays. [4]
- May – Jun 2026Maps & courts
Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama redraw
Republican-drawn maps worth an estimated +7 seats if all hold. A 6–3 Supreme Court order let Alabama's map proceed on 2 June. [4]
- 2026Maps & courts
Louisiana v. Callais
The Supreme Court partially overturns Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Analysts expect the biggest effect in 2028. [4]
- 12 Sep 2026Polls
Approval average 37.4%
Average of 10 aggregators: 37.4% approve, 59.1% disapprove (net −21.7). [5]
- 19–21 Oct 2026
- 3 Nov 2026
How Trump won in 2024
The result that set the baseline for everything since.
State by state, 2024
Each tile is one state, equal size. Hover or tap a tile for its electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska split their votes by district. [1]
Trump approval: from +5 to −24 net
Net approval is approve minus disapprove, so lower means more voters disapprove than approve.
Net approval, dated snapshots
View the data
| Date | Net approval | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2025 | +5 | 538 average, 49/44 [5] |
| 12 Oct 2025 | −18.1 | RealClearPolitics, 37.3/55.4 [5] |
| 20 Jan 2026 | −15.9 | Silver Bulletin, 40.4/56.3 [5] |
| 24 Apr 2026 | −18.6 | RealClearPolitics, 37.4/56.0 [5] |
| 12 Sept 2026 | −21.7 | Average of 10 aggregators, 37.4/59.1 [5] |
| 21 Oct 2026 | −24.3 | Silver Bulletin, net approval [11] |
The generic ballot: Democrats lead by about 7
The generic ballot asks which party's candidate people would back for Congress. It is the usual early read on House control, though it is not a seat forecast.
October 2026 polls
Off-year and special elections: the early signal
Since Trump returned to office, Democrats have, on average, run ahead of Trump's 2024 margins. Specials have unusual turnout, so analysts treat them as a signal, not a prediction.
Swing toward Democrats vs 2024 margin
Points of improvement on Trump's 2024 presidential margin. [8][9]
Key results
| Virginia governor | Abigail Spanberger (D) 57%, Winsome Earle-Sears (R) 42% [9] |
| New Jersey governor | Mikie Sherrill (D) 57%, Jack Ciattarelli (R) 43% [9] |
| New York City mayor | Zohran Mamdani (D) beat Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa [10] |
| California Prop 50 | Passed with about 64% yes [4] |
| Wisconsin Supreme Court (Apr 2026) | Chris Taylor 60%, Maria Lazar 40%; liberal majority grows to 5–2 [8] |
| GA-14 special runoff (Apr 2026) | Clay Fuller (R) 56%, Shawn Harris (D) 44%; Trump won it by nearly 40 [8] |
The redistricting race: who gains seats
After Texas redrew its map in 2025, states in both parties followed. Bars show the estimated seat gain for the party that drew the map; grey rows are maps that are not in use in 2026.
Where maps changed
Republican-leaning 15 seats, Democratic-leaning 6 seats, counting maps in effect or expected. [4]
Senate: Democrats need a net gain of four
35 seats are up: Republicans defend 22 and Democrats 13. The map is generally seen as favouring Republicans.
Where the 35 Senate races are
Yellow outline marks the 11 races listed on this page as competitive. Hover or tap a tile for detail. [3]
What is at stake: 100 seats
Democrats must hold their 13 and win 4 of the 22 Republican seats on the ballot. [3]
Senate today
53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 independents who caucus with Democrats. 51 seats for a majority. [3]
Forecasts, Aug 2026 (check each forecaster for the latest)
Races to watch
| Maine | GOP-held | Susan Collins (R) vs Troy Jackson (D) |
| Ohio (special) | GOP-held | Jon Husted (R) vs Sherrod Brown (D) |
| Alaska | GOP-held | Dan Sullivan (R) vs Mary Peltola (D) |
| Texas | GOP-held | Ken Paxton (R) vs James Talarico (D) |
| Iowa (open) | GOP-held | Ashley Hinson (R) vs Josh Turek (D) |
| North Carolina (open) | GOP-held | Michael Whatley (R) vs Roy Cooper (D) |
| Michigan (open) | Dem-held | Mike Rogers (R) vs Abdul El-Sayed (D) |
| Georgia | Dem-held | Jon Ossoff (D) vs Mike Collins (R) |
| Minnesota (open) | Dem-held | Michele Tafoya (R) vs Peggy Flanagan (D) |
| New Hampshire (open) | Dem-held | Chris Pappas (D) vs the Republican nominee |
| Nebraska | GOP-held | Pete Ricketts (R) vs independent Dan Osborn |
Republican incumbents Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and John Cornyn (Texas) lost their primaries. Eleven senators are not seeking re-election. Candidate matchups are as listed on Wikipedia in October 2026; confirm against official ballots. [3]
House and governors
House today (435 seats, 218 for a majority)
Republicans 218, Democrats 214, 1 independent, 2 vacancies. FL-20 and TX-23 are vacant and stay so on Election Day. [2]
61 members are retiring (26 Democrats, 37 Republicans), the second-most in a cycle after 1992. [2]
Ratings and governors
Forecasters moved individual seats in both directions in early October: for example Cook moved Iowa's 1st and 3rd and Pennsylvania's 7th and 10th toward Democrats, and Maine's 2nd and Pennsylvania's 1st toward Republicans. Check 270toWin for the combined map. [14]
36 governorships are up (Republicans hold 26, Democrats 24). Close races: Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin. [13]
What history says about midterms
The president's party has lost House seats in most midterms, and more when approval is low. Trump's approval is currently below 40% in most polls.
These are House seats lost by the president's party. Since 1946 the average loss is 25 seats; when approval is under 50% it is 37, and above 50% it is 14. The 2018 and 2022 midterms are not shown because they were not in the source checked. [12]
What to watch on 3 November
- Senate: Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a 51-seat majority, so Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Texas, Iowa and North Carolina matter most, while Michigan and Georgia are the seats Democrats must hold.
- House: Republicans hold 218 seats to 214 Democrats, with one independent and two vacancies. New maps in Texas, California, Florida and others change the starting line.
- Governors: 36 states vote. Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin look close.
- Louisiana moved its congressional primaries to 3 November, so some races there may not be settled on Election Night.
- Counting: close states can take days. A new Congress is sworn in on 3 January 2027.
Quick answers
When are the 2026 US midterm elections?
Tuesday, 3 November 2026. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are on the ballot.
What do Democrats need to win control of the Senate?
Republicans hold 53 seats. Democrats and the two independents who caucus with them hold 47, so they need a net gain of four seats for 51.
What is Trump's approval rating before the midterms?
Silver Bulletin put net approval at −24.3 on 21 October 2026. Individual polls that week ranged from 31% (Reuters/Ipsos) to 36% (NYT/Siena).
How did Trump win the 2024 election?
He won 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris's 226, took all seven swing states and won the popular vote 49.8% to 48.3%.
Related AiTimeline stories
The events behind the numbers.
Sources
- Wikipedia: 2024 United States presidential election
- Wikipedia: 2026 United States House of Representatives elections
- Wikipedia: 2026 United States Senate elections
- Wikipedia: 2025–2026 United States redistricting
- Wikipedia: Opinion polling on the second Trump presidency
- Al Jazeera / Reuters, 19 Oct 2026: Trump approval hits record-low 31 percent
- Forbes, 21 Oct 2026: Trump's approval rating hits record low in third new poll this week
- NPR via OPB, 8 Apr 2026: Democrats keep doing better in elections since Trump returned to office
- Decision Desk HQ: Virginia and New Jersey's elections in 10 charts
- Northeastern University: Election 2025 recap
- Silver Bulletin: Trump approval tracker (net approval, updated 21 Oct 2026)
- Gallup: Midterm seat loss averages for unpopular presidents
- NPR via WRVO: A look at the 36 races for governor this year
- 270toWin: 2026 House election forecast maps (rating changes by forecaster)
- NBC News: House votes to end record-long government shutdown
Figures are as reported by the sources above on 22 Oct 2026. Where outlets disagree, this page uses the more conservative reading and says so. Polls have margins of error, and forecasts can change or miss. This page tracks the parties neutrally and does not endorse any candidate.