Business · Global Markets & Currencies

Japanese Yen Carry Trade Timeline 1990–2026: How Cheap Yen Shaped Global Markets

Name: Yen Carry Trade Timeline Dataset
Creator: AiTimeline

📅 Updated 8 September 2026Reuters, Bank of Japan, CNBC, BloombergMarkets & monetary policy explainer

Written & reviewed by Nazish Fatima · Updated September 9, 2026

In short

Yen carry trade timeline: Japan's 1990 bubble collapse to zero rates, Abenomics, negative rates, the 2024 global unwind and the 2026 BOJ rate-hike risk.

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Most people do not wake up worrying about Japanese interest rates. But global investors do. For more than 30 years, Japan’s ultra-low rates helped turn the yen into one of the world’s favorite borrowing currencies — the yen carry trade: borrow cheaply in yen, convert into dollars or other currencies, and buy higher-yielding bonds, stocks or emerging-market assets. That worked beautifully while the yen stayed weak and Japan kept rates near zero. The danger appears when the yen rises. This yen carry trade timeline traces that story from Japan’s 1990 asset-bubble collapse to the 2024 unwind scare and the September 2026 rate-hike standoff that has traders watching Tokyo again.

What If the Yen Carry Trade Unwinds?

Quick answer Key questions Key takeaways Borrow ¥10 Million Why Japan matters Full timeline Who’s exposed FAQ

🧠 Quick Answer

The yen carry trade is a strategy where investors borrow money in Japanese yen at low interest rates, convert it into another currency, and invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. The profit comes from the interest-rate gap, but the risk is currency movement: if the yen strengthens sharply, the rising cost of repaying yen loans can wipe out the yield advantage — and force a rush of selling known as a carry-trade unwind.

⚡ Yen Carry Trade Quick Facts

OriginJapan’s 1990 asset-bubble collapse led to decades of ultra-low BOJ rates

BOJ policy rate, Sept 20261.00%, with a hike to 1.25% expected 17–18 September

Negative rates eraFebruary 2016 — March 2024 (about 8 years)

2024 unwind shockNikkei fell 12.4% on 5 August 2024, its worst day since 1987

Yen, 8 September 2026Rose to a seven-month high near ¥152.9–153.5/$1

Danger directionUnwind risk rises when the yen strengthens, not when it weakens

⚡ Quick Answers — AI Overview Ready

The Yen Carry Trade: Key Questions

What is the yen carry trade?

The yen carry trade is a strategy where investors borrow yen at low rates and invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.

Why do investors borrow Japanese yen?

Investors borrow yen because Japan kept interest rates very low for decades, making the yen a cheap funding currency.

Why does a stronger yen hurt carry trades?

A stronger yen makes it more expensive to repay yen loans. That currency loss can erase the profit from the interest-rate gap.

Why are BOJ interest rates important globally?

BOJ policy affects the cost of yen funding. When Japan raises rates or the yen strengthens, global investors using yen leverage may be forced to change positions.

📚 Key Takeaways

What this yen carry trade timeline really shows

The yen carry trade is not a single trade; it’s a decades-long pattern built on one fact — Japan kept interest rates near zero far longer than any other major economy.
The danger appears when the yen strengthens, not when it weakens. A weak yen is what makes the trade profitable; a rising yen is what forces it to unwind. Conflating the two is the most common mistake in coverage of this topic.
The 5 August 2024 unwind is the clearest real-world case study, when a BOJ rate hike and a soft U.S. jobs report combined to send the Nikkei down 12.4% in a single day — its steepest one-day fall since 1987.
Japan’s negative-rate experiment lasted about eight years (2016–2024), the longest sustained sub-zero policy of any major central bank in modern history.
The BOJ has raised rates five times since ending negative rates in March 2024, moving from 0% to a current 1.00%, with a sixth hike to 1.25% expected on 17–18 September 2026.
September 2026’s yen rally is a symptom, not a proven cause, of any single market move — carry positions are difficult to measure precisely, and this article does not claim otherwise.
“Mrs Watanabe,” Japan’s retail foreign-currency investors, are a real but often overstated part of the story — institutional hedge funds and banks move far larger sums.
The carry trade is not free money. Every yen borrowed must eventually be repaid in yen, and that repayment cost is the entire risk of the trade.

Why Japan Matters to Wall Street

Tap either state to see the flow of money — and what happens when it runs in reverse

🔗 The Yen Funding Chain

↔

Japan keeps rates very low → investors borrow yen cheaply → convert to dollars → buy U.S. bonds, stocks, emerging-market assets and higher-yielding currencies → the spread is pocketed as profit, as long as the yen stays roughly stable or weak.

⚠️ Simplified for clarity. Real carry-trade flows involve many currencies, maturities and hedging structures, and their true size is not precisely measurable from public data.

💵 Borrow ¥10 Million — See the Trade

A simplified reader scenario. Tap a state.

Borrowing cost1%

Investment return5%

Rate spread4%

You borrow ¥10,000,000 at Japan’s 1% interest rate, convert it into dollars, and invest at a 5% yield elsewhere. Your borrowing cost is 1%, your return is 5%, and the 4% spread is your profit — as long as the yen does not move much against you.

⚠️ If you borrowed yen, you eventually need yen to repay the loan. When the yen becomes more expensive, your repayment cost rises. That currency move can erase the gain from the higher-yielding investment. This is illustrative, not investment advice.

An important distinction, stated plainly: the yen carry trade is not the sole cause of any given market decline, and its true global size is not precisely measurable — positions are spread across banks, hedge funds and retail investors in ways no single data source captures. This article treats it as one real, well-documented risk factor among several, not a guaranteed trigger of the next crash.

Bank of Japan head office building in Chuo, Tokyo, Japan

The Bank of Japan’s head office in Nihonbashi-Hongokucho, Tokyo — the source of the interest-rate decisions that shaped four decades of global carry-trade flows. Photo: katorisi, CC BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia Commons.

The Yen Carry Trade Timeline: 1990–2026

Newest first — from this week’s BOJ standoff back to Japan’s 1990 bubble collapse

17–18
Sep 2026

BOJ meeting: a hike to 1.25% is expected, not yet decided

Kyodo News reportingUpcoming — a target, not a confirmed fact

What’s expected: Kyodo News reported the Bank of Japan plans to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points, from 1.00% to 1.25%, at its 17–18 September meeting — which would be the highest level in roughly 31 years. Market pricing has shown a high probability of a hike but this is a forecast, not a completed decision.

Why it matters: a confirmed hike would narrow the rate gap with other major economies further and add fresh pressure on any yen-funded position that has not already been reduced.

Interesting fact: this article does not claim the hike is guaranteed — BOJ meetings have surprised markets in both directions before.

8 Sep
2026

Yen reaches a seven-month high on hike bets and repatriation flows

CNBC, FXStreet¥152.9–153.5 per dollar

What happened: the yen strengthened to its highest level since February 2026, as traders priced in a faster pace of BOJ tightening, the possibility of Japanese investors repatriating funds ahead of the fiscal half-year close, continued unwinding of short-yen positions, and U.S. political pressure on the dollar.

Why it revived carry-trade fears: a fast, sizable yen move — in either direction — is what forces leveraged positions to adjust quickly. A stronger yen specifically raises the cost of any position still funded in yen.

Strongest since Feb 2026Japan Q2 GDP revised up

16 Jun
2026

BOJ hikes to 1.00%, highest since 1995

Bank of JapanPolicy Board, 7–1 vote

What happened: the BOJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.00%, citing sustained inflation pressure from yen depreciation and elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions. Governor Ueda did not attend, hospitalized the previous week; Deputy Governor Himino chaired the meeting.

Why it mattered: a firmer 7–1 vote, compared with a 6–3 split at the prior meeting, signaled a hardening consensus inside the BOJ for continued tightening rather than a pause.

Interesting fact: the hike was driven partly by yen weakness pushing up import costs — a reminder that BOJ policy and the yen’s level constantly feed back into each other.

19 Dec
2025

BOJ hikes to 0.75%, highest since 1995

Bank of JapanGovernor Kazuo Ueda

What happened: the BOJ raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, its second hike of 2025, lifting 10-year JGB yields past 2% and marking the highest policy rate since September 1995.

Why it mattered: the move confirmed the BOJ was continuing a steady, multi-year normalization path rather than a one-off correction — each hike since 2024 has narrowed the gap that originally made yen funding so attractive.

Interesting fact: this was the BOJ’s fourth rate hike since ending negative rates in March 2024 — a pace unusually steady for a central bank historically known for extreme caution.

24 Jan
2025

BOJ hikes to 0.50%, a 17-year high

Bank of JapanPolicy Board

What happened: the BOJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.50%, continuing the tightening path it began in mid-2024 and reaching its highest level in roughly 17 years.

Why it mattered: each additional hike further eroded the interest-rate gap between Japan and economies like the U.S., squeezing the profit margin that carry trades depend on.

Interesting fact: Deputy Governor Uchida had signaled “more hikes in the pipeline” in the weeks before this decision — the market was largely prepared for it.

5 Aug
2024

The 2024 carry-trade unwind: Nikkei’s worst day since 1987

Reuters, global marketsTokyo, Wall Street

What happened: after the BOJ’s July 31 hike and a weak U.S. jobs report on August 2 raised fears of a faster Fed rate-cut cycle, the yen surged and leveraged carry positions unwound violently. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix plunged more than 12% in a single session on August 5 — the Nikkei’s steepest one-day drop on record, exceeding 1987’s Black Monday — while the S&P 500 fell roughly 3% the same day.

Why it matters: this is the clearest modern proof that a yen carry-trade unwind can transmit stress from Tokyo to Wall Street within hours, even though the trade itself is largely invisible in everyday market data.

Interesting fact: the shock did not come from the yen weakening — it came from the yen strengthening sharply and quickly, the exact opposite of what makes the trade profitable.

31 Jul
2024

BOJ hikes to 0.25% — the trigger

Bank of JapanFirst hike after negative-rate exit

What happened: the BOJ raised its benchmark rate from around 0.1% to 0.25%, an unexpectedly hawkish move that immediately increased the cost of yen funding worldwide.

Why it matters: combined days later with a soft U.S. jobs report, this single 15-basis-point-equivalent surprise was enough to help trigger the August 5 global unwind — a reminder of how tightly wound leveraged carry positions can be.

Interesting fact: the hike itself was small in absolute terms; it was the change in expectations, not the number itself, that rattled leveraged positions.

19 Mar
2024

BOJ ends negative interest rates after eight years

Bank of Japan7–2 Policy Board vote

What happened: the BOJ scrapped its −0.1% negative rate, moving to a 0%–0.1% range, and abandoned its yield-curve-control program while ending ETF purchases — ending the world’s last negative-rate regime and raising rates for the first time in 17 years.

Why it matters: this was the historic pivot point. For eight years Japan had been the world’s most reliable source of near-free money; this decision marked the start of that era’s unwind, even though rates stayed extraordinarily low for years afterward.

First hike in 17 yearsEnded 8-year negative-rate era

2022–
2023

The Fed hikes aggressively while Japan stays ultra-loose

U.S. Federal Reserve vs. BOJPost-pandemic inflation fight

What happened: the U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates aggressively to fight inflation, while the BOJ kept policy far looser for far longer, widening the interest-rate gap between the two economies to its largest in decades.

Why it matters: the wider the gap, the more attractive yen-funded trades become — this period rebuilt carry-trade positioning at a scale not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis.

Interesting fact: the yen weakened sharply against the dollar through this period, which is exactly the environment carry traders want — cheap to borrow, and getting cheaper.

2020–
2021

Pandemic monetary shock resets global rates

Global central banksCOVID-19 response

What happened: central banks worldwide slashed rates and injected liquidity to counter the pandemic shock. Many economies briefly approached Japan’s own near-zero territory, temporarily narrowing the funding-currency advantage the yen had long held.

Why it matters: even in a world of globally cheap money, Japan’s negative-rate policy meant the yen remained one of the very cheapest currencies to borrow, keeping it structurally relevant even when the rate gap briefly compressed.

Interesting fact: as other central banks began normalizing policy from 2022 onward, Japan’s continued ultra-looseness became the outlier again — setting up the widening gap of 2022–2023.

2016

BOJ introduces negative interest rates

Bank of JapanAnnounced 29 Jan, effective 16 Feb 2016

What happened: the BOJ cut its policy rate to −0.1%, becoming the world’s last major central bank to adopt a negative-rate policy, aimed at pushing banks to lend rather than hoard reserves.

Why it matters: negative rates cemented the yen’s status as one of the cheapest major funding currencies on Earth for the next eight years, extending and deepening the carry trade’s global reach.

Interesting fact: the policy applied only to a portion of excess reserves commercial banks held at the BOJ, not to ordinary depositors’ savings — a nuance often lost in casual coverage.

2013

Abenomics launches aggressive monetary easing

PM Shinzo Abe, BOJ Governor KurodaQuantitative and qualitative easing

What happened: newly appointed BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda launched large-scale quantitative and qualitative easing under Prime Minister Abe’s economic program, aiming explicitly to weaken the yen and end deflation.

Why it matters: a policy that deliberately pushed the yen weaker made yen-funded trades more profitable almost by design, reviving global interest in the carry trade after the 2008 shock had scared many investors away.

Interesting fact: Abenomics is often remembered for stock-market gains, but its currency effects — a persistently weaker yen — mattered just as much to global carry-trade flows.

2008

The first great unwind: the global financial crisis

Global financial crisisYen spikes as leverage unwinds

What happened: as the global financial crisis triggered panic and forced deleveraging worldwide, investors rushed to buy back yen to repay carry-trade loans, sending the yen sharply higher even as nearly every other asset fell.

Why it matters: this was the first large-scale demonstration that carry trades can reverse violently and fast — a lesson the market would need re-learning again in August 2024.

Interesting fact: a strengthening yen during a global crash may look paradoxical, but it is a direct, mechanical consequence of carry-trade unwinding, not a sign of Japanese economic strength.

1999–
2007

The carry trade expands and reaches peak confidence

Global hedge funds, Japanese retailPre-crisis expansion

What happened: Japanese retail investors and global hedge funds increasingly borrowed yen to fund positions in Australian dollars, U.S. bonds, emerging-market debt and global equities. By 2006–2007, risk appetite was high and many believed stable currency conditions could sustain the trade indefinitely.

Why it matters: this eight-year run built the template — and the false sense of safety — that the 2008 crisis would later shatter.

Interesting fact: the term “Mrs Watanabe” entered financial-market vocabulary during this period, referring to Japanese retail investors seeking higher returns abroad.

1999

Japan adopts a zero-interest-rate policy

Bank of JapanFebruary 1999

What happened: the BOJ cut its policy rate effectively to zero, the first time any major central bank had done so in the modern era, in an effort to lift Japan out of prolonged deflation.

Why it matters: this is the moment the yen became structurally attractive as a global funding currency — the interest-rate gap with the rest of the world was now about as wide as it could get.

Interesting fact: the policy was lifted briefly in 2000 before being reinstated in 2001 as deflation persisted — Japan’s low-rate era was not a single unbroken line, though it trended in one direction for decades.

1995

Rates fall dramatically

Bank of JapanPost-bubble stimulus

What happened: the BOJ cut its official discount rate sharply through 1995, down to roughly 0.5%, as Japan’s economy struggled with the aftermath of the bubble collapse and a strong yen that was hurting exporters.

Why it matters: this was the decisive move toward the ultra-low-rate environment that would, within a few years, make Japan the default source of cheap global funding.

Interesting fact: Japan cut rates specifically to weaken a yen that had become too strong for its exporters — an early example of the same currency dynamics still driving policy three decades later.

1990

Japan’s asset bubble begins to collapse

Nikkei, Japanese real estateBubble peak: December 1989

What happened: Japan’s stock and property bubble, which had peaked in December 1989, began a sustained collapse through 1990, dragging the country into a long period of weak growth, falling asset prices and deflationary pressure.

Why it matters: everything in this timeline traces back to this collapse — without it, Japan would not have spent the following three-plus decades cutting rates toward, and then below, zero.

Interesting fact: no one in 1990 used the phrase “yen carry trade” — the strategy that name describes did not exist in a meaningful global sense until the zero-rate policy of 1999 made it possible.

Who Actually Uses the Yen Carry Trade?

No single group runs this trade — it spans institutions and individuals alike

Funding source

Bank of Japan

Sets the interest-rate policy that determines how cheap yen funding is. Every entry in this timeline traces back to a BOJ decision.

Institutional

Global hedge funds & banks

Run the largest yen-funded positions, often across multiple currencies and asset classes, using leverage that amplifies both gains and unwind risk.

Retail

“Mrs Watanabe” — Japanese retail investors

A market nickname for ordinary Japanese savers who moved money into foreign-currency assets seeking better returns than Japan’s near-zero domestic rates offered.

Counterparty

U.S. Federal Reserve

Fed policy sets the other side of the rate gap. When the Fed hikes while the BOJ stays loose, the carry trade becomes more attractive; when that gap narrows, it becomes less so.

Destination markets

Emerging-market bonds & currencies

A common landing spot for borrowed yen seeking yield — and a common casualty when unwinds force rapid selling across unrelated economies.

Transmission channel

Global equity markets

The 5 August 2024 unwind showed how quickly carry-trade stress in currency markets can spill into stock markets on the other side of the world.

BOJ Policy Rate, Side by Side

Every rate move since the 2024 pivot, per Bank of Japan and Reuters reporting

Date	Move	New rate
19 Mar 2024	Ends negative rates, ends yield-curve control	0%–0.1%
31 Jul 2024	First post-ZIRP hike	0.25%
24 Jan 2025	Hike, 17-year high	0.50%
19 Dec 2025	Hike, highest since 1995	0.75%
16 Jun 2026	Hike, highest since 1995	1.00%
17–18 Sep 2026	Hike expected (not yet decided)	1.25% (forecast)

Carry Trade Eras Compared

How the funding environment changed the trade’s character over time

Era	Rate environment	What defined it
1999–2007	Zero rates	The trade’s first global expansion; “Mrs Watanabe” enters the vocabulary
2008	Crisis unwind	Violent yen spike as leveraged positions unwound worldwide
2013–2015	Abenomics easing	Deliberate yen weakening reignites carry-trade interest
2016–2024	Negative rates	Eight years as the world’s single cheapest major funding currency
2024	Normalization begins	August 2024 unwind proves the risk is real, not theoretical
2025–2026	Steady tightening	Five hikes narrow the gap; September 2026 tests it again

💡 Worth Knowing

The carry trade does not require a formal contract or product — it is simply the act of borrowing in a low-rate currency and investing in a higher-yielding one, which is why its true global size is genuinely hard to measure.
A weakening yen makes the trade more profitable; a strengthening yen is what triggers an unwind. These are opposite directions, and conflating them is one of the most common errors in casual coverage of this topic.
Japan’s negative-rate era, from February 2016 to March 2024, was the longest sustained sub-zero policy of any major central bank in modern financial history.
The 5 August 2024 Nikkei plunge of 12.4% remains the single clearest, most-cited real-world proof that a yen carry-trade unwind can move markets far beyond Japan within hours.
This article does not claim the yen carry trade is the sole cause of any specific market decline — multiple factors usually combine, and carry positions are not precisely measurable from public data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the yen carry trade?

Is the yen carry trade risky?

Yes. It can be profitable when currency markets are stable, but a sudden yen rally can create large, fast losses, as shown by the August 2024 unwind.

Who uses the yen carry trade?

Hedge funds, institutional investors, banks and some retail investors, particularly in Japan, have used yen-funded carry strategies at various points since the late 1990s.

What is “Mrs Watanabe”?

“Mrs Watanabe” is a market nickname for Japanese retail investors who seek higher returns abroad, often through foreign-currency investments, entering common use during the trade’s 1999–2007 expansion.

Did the carry trade cause the 2008 financial crisis?

No. The financial crisis had many causes rooted in the U.S. housing and banking system. But the yen carry trade unwound violently during the crisis as investors cut risky positions, causing the yen to spike even as most other assets fell.

Why did the BOJ keep rates so low for so long?

Japan struggled with weak growth, deflation and low inflation for decades after its 1990 asset-bubble collapse, and successive BOJ policies aimed to revive lending and spending using near-zero and eventually negative rates.

Why does a stronger yen hurt carry trades?

Because the loan was taken out in yen, it must eventually be repaid in yen. If the yen becomes more expensive relative to the currency the investment was made in, the cost of repayment rises, which can erase or exceed the profit from the interest-rate spread.

What happens when the yen carry trade unwinds?

Investors may sell assets, buy yen to repay loans, and reduce leverage. This can increase volatility across stocks, bonds, currencies and emerging markets, as seen on 5 August 2024.

Why are Bank of Japan interest rates important globally?

BOJ policy affects the cost of yen funding worldwide. When Japan raises rates or the yen strengthens, global investors using yen leverage may be forced to change positions, which can ripple into unrelated markets.

When did Japan first adopt a zero-interest-rate policy?

The Bank of Japan effectively cut rates to zero in February 1999, the first time a major central bank had done so in the modern era, though the policy was briefly lifted in 2000 before being reinstated in 2001.

When did the Bank of Japan introduce negative interest rates?

The BOJ announced a negative rate policy on 29 January 2016, effective 16 February 2016, cutting its policy rate to -0.1%. This lasted until the policy ended on 19 March 2024.

When did the Bank of Japan end negative interest rates?

The BOJ ended its negative interest rate policy on 19 March 2024, moving to a 0%-0.1% range and abandoning yield-curve control, after roughly eight years of sub-zero rates.

What caused the August 2024 global market selloff?

A BOJ rate hike to 0.25% on 31 July 2024, followed by a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report on 2 August, combined to trigger a rapid unwind of yen-funded carry positions, sending Japan’s Nikkei down 12.4% on 5 August 2024 and pressuring global equities.

How much did the Nikkei fall on 5 August 2024?

The Nikkei 225 fell 12.4% in a single session, its steepest one-day decline on record, exceeding the drop seen during 1987’s Black Monday. The S&P 500 also fell roughly 3% the same day.

What is the current Bank of Japan interest rate as of September 2026?

As of early September 2026, the BOJ’s policy rate stands at 1.00%, following a hike on 16 June 2026. A further hike to 1.25% is expected, but not yet confirmed, at the BOJ’s 17–18 September 2026 meeting.

Why did the yen hit a seven-month high in September 2026?

The yen strengthened on growing bets of a faster pace of BOJ tightening, potential repatriation of Japanese capital ahead of the fiscal half-year close, continued unwinding of short-yen positions, and broader dollar weakness.

What is Abenomics and how does it relate to the carry trade?

Abenomics was the economic program launched under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2013, combining aggressive monetary easing under BOJ Governor Kuroda with fiscal stimulus and structural reform. Its deliberate yen-weakening effect made yen-funded carry trades more profitable, reviving interest in the strategy after the 2008 shock.

Is the yen carry trade the same as forex speculation?

They overlap but are not identical. The carry trade specifically exploits an interest-rate differential between two currencies; broader forex speculation can be based on many other factors, such as economic data, political events or technical trading patterns.

How long did Japan’s negative interest rate policy last?

Japan’s negative interest rate policy lasted from 16 February 2016 to 19 March 2024, about eight years — the longest sustained sub-zero policy of any major central bank in modern history.

Can retail investors participate in the yen carry trade?

In principle, yes, through margin foreign-exchange accounts, though this carries significant risk and this article does not recommend leveraged forex trading. Most of the trade’s scale historically has come from institutional investors and hedge funds rather than individual retail traders.

Does a weaker yen always mean the carry trade is safe?

Not automatically. A weak or stable yen supports the trade’s profitability, but other risks — such as a sudden shift in the borrowed currency’s own rate policy, or unrelated market shocks — can still affect leveraged positions.

How many times has the BOJ raised rates since ending negative rates?

As of early September 2026, the BOJ has raised rates five times since ending negative rates in March 2024: July 2024, January 2025, December 2025, and June 2026, with a sixth hike expected in September 2026.

What is the difference between the yen carry trade and quantitative easing?

Quantitative easing is a central-bank policy tool involving large-scale asset purchases to inject liquidity. The yen carry trade is a private investment strategy that exploits the low rates such policies help create; the BOJ’s QE under Abenomics is one reason the carry trade became so attractive after 2013.

Global bond market timeline: how the same rate cycles move bond markets worldwide India oil crisis timeline: another example of how global liquidity shifts hit emerging markets India stock market timeline: how foreign fund flows respond to global rate cycles AI data center energy crisis: the power-demand side of the same global liquidity story US economy slowdown timeline: the Fed side of the rate gap that drives carry-trade flows Explore All AiTimeline Stories

⚠️ Editorial Note

This article separates confirmed BOJ decisions and dated market events (sourced to the Bank of Japan, Reuters, Kyodo News, CNBC and Bloomberg) from forward-looking market expectations, such as the widely reported but not-yet-confirmed 17–18 September 2026 rate decision, which is clearly labeled as a forecast. It does not claim the yen carry trade is the sole cause of any specific market move, does not cite an unsourced total size for the global carry trade, and is not investment advice. This is editorial and educational analysis only.

Sources & further reading

Every dated entry above was checked against these references. Last reviewed 9 September 2026.