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UK Budget 2026: Key Points, Tax Changes and Economic Impact

📅 Updated 29 October 2026🏛️ Delivered 28 October 2026 · Chancellor John Healey📈 With OBR October 2026 forecasts
In short

The UK Budget announced on 28 October 2026 combines household energy support, higher minimum wages, housing investment and business incentives with

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The UK Budget 2026, delivered by Chancellor John Healey on 28 October 2026, is his first since taking over from Rachel Reeves. It leaves the headline rates of income tax, National Insurance and VAT alone. Instead it gives with one hand and takes with the other: a £100 energy payment for most households in England, a longer electricity VAT cut, a £13.21 National Living Wage and £4.7 billion for first-time buyers on one side; higher tax on savings interest and rental income, a smaller Business Asset Disposal Relief and a temporary bank surcharge on the other. Below is what each change means in plain English, when it starts, who gains and who pays more — plus what the Office for Budget Responsibility expects for growth, inflation and borrowing.

UK Budget 2026: Key Points, Tax Changes and Economic Impact
⚠️ Read this first: Most measures start in 2027 or later, and some still need legislation or detailed guidance. Every figure below carries its start date so future support isn’t mistaken for money already paid. OBR numbers are forecasts, not outcomes. This is a general explainer, not personal tax advice.

🧠 AI Overview Summary

The UK Budget 2026 was delivered by Chancellor John Healey on 28 October 2026. It does not raise the headline rates of income tax, National Insurance or VAT. Its main giveaways are a one-off £100 Household Energy Payment for council tax bands A–D in England from January 2027, the 0% VAT on domestic electricity extended to July 2027, the fuel-duty cut and freeze extended to 1 July 2027, and a National Living Wage of £13.21 from April 2027. The main tax rises hit savings and property income, taxed at 24%, 44% and 49% from 6 April 2027 (up from 20%, 40% and 45%). The OBR forecasts growth of 1.2% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027, with borrowing falling from 4.2% to 1.8% of GDP by 2031–32.

⚡ UK Budget 2026 — Snapshot
Delivered28 October 2026 · Chancellor John Healey
Headline tax ratesIncome tax, NI and VAT rates unchanged
Biggest giveaway£100 energy payment · England bands A–D · Jan 2027
Biggest tax rise for householdsSavings & property income 24/44/49% · 6 Apr 2027
National Living Wage£13.21/hour from 1 April 2027 (+3.9%)
OBR growth forecast1.2% in 2026 · 1.0% in 2027
⚡ Quick Answers — AI Overview Ready

UK Budget 2026: Key Questions

Did the UK Budget 2026 raise income tax?
Not the headline rates on wages. Income tax, National Insurance and VAT rates are unchanged. But tax on savings interest and rental profits rises by four points at each band from 6 April 2027.
Who gets the £100 energy payment?
Households in council tax bands A–D in England, from January 2027, delivered through the council tax system. It is a one-off £100, not monthly. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland get Barnett funding to run their own support.
What is the minimum wage from April 2027?
£13.21 an hour for workers aged 21+, up 3.9% from £12.71. The 18–20 rate rises to £11.27. The government says a full-time worker on the National Living Wage gains £910 a year before tax.
What does the OBR forecast?
Growth of 1.2% in 2026, slowing to 1.0% in 2027, then 1.6–1.8%. Inflation peaks around 3¾% in early 2027 and returns to 2% in 2028. Borrowing falls from 4.2% of GDP this year to 1.8% in 2031–32.
📚 Key Takeaways

UK Budget 2026 at a Glance

  • No headline rate rises. Income tax, National Insurance and VAT rates on earnings and spending are unchanged.
  • £100 off energy costs, once. A one-off Household Energy Payment for up to 20 million homes in bands A–D in England from January 2027 — a £2.6 billion programme.
  • Electricity VAT stays at 0% to July 2027, worth around £50 off the annual price cap from April 2027. Fuel duty’s 5p cut and freeze also run to 1 July 2027.
  • Savers and landlords pay more. From 6 April 2027 savings and property income is taxed at 24%, 44% and 49% — four points above today’s 20/40/45% (two from Budget 2025, two more from this Budget).
  • Pay rises: National Living Wage £13.21 from 1 April 2027; about 2.3 million workers benefit.
  • Housing gets two separate schemes: £4.7bn “Your First Home” equity loans for about 70,000 buyers, and £1.5bn for about 10,000 social and affordable homes.
  • Business: 20–25% electricity discounts for about 10,000 energy-intensive manufacturers, extra rates relief for pubs and the high street, a new 10% Founders’ Relief — but BADR’s lifetime limit halves to £500,000.
  • OBR outlook: slower growth in 2027 as energy prices and interest rates bite; inflation back to 2% in 2028; current budget in surplus from 2029–30.

The Headline Numbers

Different programmes, dates and forecast periods — don’t add them together as one “size of the Budget” figure.

£100
One-off Household Energy Payment, bands A–D, England
From Jan 2027
£13.21
National Living Wage per hour, age 21+
From 1 Apr 2027
24%
Basic-rate tax on savings & property income (now 20%)
From 6 Apr 2027
£4.7bn
Your First Home equity-loan scheme, ~70,000 buyers
First loans Apr 2027
£1.5bn
Extra for ~10,000 social & affordable homes
England
20–25%
Electricity discount, energy-intensive manufacturers
From Apr 2027
1.2%
OBR GDP growth forecast for 2026
Forecast
1.8%
Borrowing as share of GDP in 2031–32
Forecast

Household Impact: What Changes for You, and When

Three typical situations. Dates matter — almost nothing lands before January 2027.

💡

A household in bands A–D (England)

  • £100 one-off energy payment Jan 2027
  • ~£50 lower price cap from electricity VAT staying at 0% Apr 2027
  • Fuel duty 5p cut and freeze kept to 1 Jul 2027
  • Gas standing charges (avg £108/yr) to be abolished aim: end 2027
💼

A full-time worker on minimum wage

  • Pay rises to £13.21/hour 1 Apr 2027
  • About £910 a year more, before tax and NI
  • Drivers using their own car: 55p/mile made permanent; above 10,000 miles rises 25p → 35p
  • Self-employed fathers and partners get parental pay for the first time
🏦

A saver or landlord

  • Taxable savings interest: 20% → 24% at basic rate 6 Apr 2027
  • Taxable rental profits: 24/44/49% 6 Apr 2027
  • Cash ISA allowance stays £20,000 — interest inside an ISA is still tax-free
  • Most savers below their Personal Savings Allowance pay nothing extra

💰 Worked Example: £1,000 of Taxable Savings Interest

Say a basic-rate taxpayer has £1,000 of interest above their Personal Savings Allowance. Today it is taxed at 20% = £200. From April 2027 it is taxed at 24% = £240 — £40 more. Some summaries describe the change as “22% to 24%”: that compares against the 22% Budget 2025 had already set for April 2027, which never actually took effect. Against what savers pay today, the rise is four points.

1. Energy Bills: What Households Get

Short-term relief now, plus reforms meant to cut the underlying cost later.

The £100 Household Energy Payment

From January 2027, households in council tax bands A–D in England are due a £100 payment, delivered through the council tax system, with the Treasury saying it will go directly into bank accounts. The £2.6 billion programme covers up to 20 million households. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland get extra funding through the Barnett formula to provide comparable support their own way.

It is one payment of £100, not £100 a month. If you rent and your landlord pays council tax for you, check with your council how it will reach you.

Electricity VAT stays at 0%

The temporary zero VAT rate on domestic electricity in Great Britain is extended to July 2027. The government expects it to take about £50 off the annual Ofgem price cap from April 2027. Your real saving depends on how much electricity you use.

The longer-term changes

  • Gas standing charges — currently about £108 a year on average — are to be abolished. Ofgem has been asked to do this by the end of 2027 or as soon as possible after, with targeted protections.
  • Energy Debt Circuit Breaker, including one-off debt relief, to tackle more than £5 billion of household energy debt; the Treasury says it saves a typical billpayer about £30 by 2030.
  • The planned Gas Shipper Obligation — a new levy on gas bills — is scrapped.
  • A review of electricity standing charges and a new framework to control policy costs on bills, due at the 2027 spending review.

The £100 and the VAT extension are fixed. The standing-charge and debt reforms still need Ofgem and implementation detail.

💡 Energy Support Timeline
🏛️
28 Oct 2026
Budget announced
£
Jan 2027
£100 payment begins
💡
Apr 2027
~£50 off price cap
🔌
Spring 2027
Cheaper public EV charging
⛽
Jul 2027
VAT cut & fuel freeze end
🔥
End 2027
Gas standing charge target

Timings follow the announced policy schedule and can move with implementation.

2. Tax Changes: What Goes Up, What Stays the Same

No headline rate rises — but specific kinds of income and business face more tax.

📊 Savings & Property Income Tax: Now vs From 6 April 2027
Band2026–27From 6 Apr 2027
Basic rate

20%
24%
Higher rate

40%
44%
Additional rate

45%
49%

These rates apply to taxable savings interest and property (rental) income only — not to wages. Rates on earnings stay at 20/40/45%. Source: HMRC Budget 2026 rates annex.

Tax or measureChange announcedWhen
Income tax on earningsRates unchanged (20/40/45%)—
National InsuranceRates unchanged—
VATHeadline 20% unchanged; 0% on domestic electricity extendedTo July 2027
Savings income tax24% / 44% / 49% (from 20/40/45%)6 April 2027
Property income tax24% / 44% / 49%6 April 2027
Business Asset Disposal ReliefLifetime limit £1m → £500,000 (rate 18%)6 April 2027
Founders’ Relief (new)10% CGT on up to £10m lifetime gains for qualifying founders6 April 2027
Bank Corporation Tax Surcharge3% → 6% (temporary), back to 3% after1 Jan 2027 – 31 Mar 2028
Machine Games Duty20% → 25% on machines with stakes over £1April 2027
Capital allowancesMain writing-down rate to 12%; first-year allowance 40% → 50%From 2027
Trading AllowanceTripled, £1,000 → £3,0006 April 2027
Cash ISA allowanceStays at £20,000No cut
Online marketplacesMust collect VAT for UK sellers above £90,000 of salesOctober 2027
VAT e-invoicingSpecified electronic invoices requiredApril 2029

Why savers and landlords are the main target

Budget 2025 had already planned a two-point rise for savings and property income from April 2027. This Budget adds two more, landing on the same date. The Treasury says 84% of income taxpayers are unaffected — mainly because ISAs and the Personal Savings Allowance shelter most people’s interest. In England, Wales and Northern Ireland the new property rates apply directly; Scotland sets its own rates on non-savings income, so Scottish landlords should check how the rules apply to them.

For a landlord, the bill depends on taxable profit after allowable expenses, not rent received. A basic-rate landlord with £10,000 of taxable rental profit would pay £2,400 instead of £2,000 — £400 more a year, all else equal.

Business owners selling up

Halving the Business Asset Disposal Relief limit to £500,000 means less of a business sale qualifies for the 18% rate. The new Founders’ Relief is narrower than it sounds: a 10% rate on up to £10 million of lifetime gains, only for qualifying founders of high-growth, innovative companies. It is not a general 10% capital gains rate.

Other targeted changes

  • Banks pay a 6% surcharge for 15 months, from 1 January 2027 to 31 March 2028.
  • Small Producer Relief for alcohol is worth £10 million a year to more than 2,000 small producers, with alcohol duty changes from 1 February 2027.
  • From April 2029, people already making Self Assessment Payments on Account will make smaller, more regular payments during the year.
  • HMRC gets a new power to recover lower-value tax debts directly from people who can pay but repeatedly don’t.

3. Minimum Wage, Pensions and Family Support

All National Minimum Wage rates rise 3.9% on 1 April 2027.

Worker groupNow (Apr 2026)From 1 Apr 2027Rise
21 and over — National Living Wage£12.71£13.21+50p
18–20£10.85£11.27+42p
16–17£8.00£8.31+31p
Apprentices£8.00£8.31+31p

The government says the new National Living Wage adds about £910 a year to a full-time worker’s gross pay, and that about 2.3 million workers benefit. Take-home gains are smaller once tax and National Insurance come off.

Pension Tax Allowance

A new Pension Tax Allowance means pensioners whose total income is at or below the full new State Pension won’t be pulled into income tax simply because the State Pension is uprated during this Parliament. It saves small tax bills and paperwork. It does not exempt pensioners with other income.

Parents and commuting workers

Parental pay is expanded, reaching self-employed fathers and partners for the first time. The 55p-a-mile tax-free rate for the first 10,000 business miles becomes permanent, and the rate above 10,000 miles rises from 25p to 35p — the Treasury’s example is £120 a year extra for someone doing 6,000 business miles.

4. Housing: Two Different Schemes, Two Different Problems

The £4.7bn helps people buy. The £1.5bn builds homes for rent. They are not the same pot.

For buyers
£4.7bn

Your First Home

  • Equity loans of up to 20% for about 70,000 first-time buyers in England
  • Deposits from 2.5%; five years interest-free
  • Income caps: £110,000 (£140,000 in London)
  • Pre-register by end of December 2026; applications from February 2027; first loans April 2027
For renters
£1.5bn

Social & Affordable Homes

  • About 10,000 extra social and affordable homes in England
  • Priority on Social Rent, including council housing
  • Takes the programme past £40bn over 10 years
  • Delivery depends on land, planning and builders

An equity loan isn’t a grant: the government takes a share of the home’s value, which you repay later. Read the repayment terms before you commit.

First Time Buyer ISA from April 2029

A new First Time Buyer ISA will replace the Lifetime ISA for new savers from April 2029: up to £4,000 a year, a 25% government bonus, homes up to £450,000 and no upper age limit. Existing Lifetime ISA holders carry on. From 29 October 2026, the Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge for first-home purchases above the £450,000 cap falls from 25% to 20%.

5. Business Rates, Manufacturers and EV Drivers

High street

Business rates support

An extra 20% rates cut for pubs, music venues and social clubs; a higher Small Business Rate Relief threshold so about 70,000 more retail, hospitality and leisure firms pay nothing; a two-year freeze for other such properties.

Industry

British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme

About 10,000 energy-intensive manufacturers get 20–25% off electricity bills from April 2027, including a back payment for 2026–27.

Motoring

EV charging & fuel

£100m over two years cuts the cost of local lower-powered public chargers from spring 2027 — about £150 a year for on-street drivers without a home charger. Fuel duty’s 5p cut, the 3.7p red-diesel cut and the HGV road tax holiday run to 1 July 2027.

Growth

Founders, staff shares & AI

EMI2 option limit doubles from £60,000 to £120,000 from April 2027; £140m more for the Sovereign AI Unit; the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank to deploy up to £5bn over four years into defence and dual-use sectors.

The online-marketplace VAT rule funds part of the high-street package: from October 2027, platforms must collect VAT on sales by UK sellers making over £90,000 through them. A fuel-duty freeze doesn’t guarantee cheaper petrol — crude prices, the pound and retailer margins still set the pump price. Tariffs are also suspended on more than 100 food products until December 2028, which the Treasury expects to cut consumer costs by £120–185 million a year.

6. Economic Outlook: What the OBR Forecasts

From the OBR’s October 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook. Every value is a forecast, not an outcome.

GDP growth

Real GDP, % change on a year earlier

1.31.21.01.61.81.71.62025202620272028202920302031

2025 is outturn. The 2027 dip reflects higher energy prices and interest rates.

CPI inflation

Annual average %, dashed line = 2% target

2% target3.43.13.42.12.12.02.02025202620272028202920302031

Quarterly peak around 3¾% in early 2027; back to 2% in 2028.

Government borrowing

Public sector net borrowing, % of GDP

4.44.23.42.92.11.81.825-2626-2727-2828-2929-3030-3131-32

£133bn this year falling to about £68bn by 2031–32. 2025–26 is outturn.

✅ What the OBR expects

  • Growth slows from about 1¼% in 2026 to 1% in 2027, then recovers
  • Unemployment peaks just above 5% in Q2 2027, then falls towards 4.1%
  • Current budget in surplus from 2029–30, meeting the fiscal rule with £15bn to spare
  • Net debt peaks around 97% of GDP in 2028–29

⚠️ What could change it

  • A higher, longer energy-price peak could add £17bn to borrowing in 2027–28
  • A 1-point change in interest rates moves debt interest by about £16bn
  • Productivity 0.5 points higher or lower swings borrowing by £40–50bn
  • Defence ambitions and public-sector pay add spending pressure

A fall in inflation means prices rise more slowly, not that they come back down. The OBR also expects real household disposable income per person in 2030–31 to be only about 2% above its pre-pandemic level — one reason the Budget leans on targeted help rather than broad tax cuts.

Public spending

The government says day-to-day departmental spending will be over £40 billion a year higher by 2028–29 than under previous plans, and capital investment £120 billion higher over the Parliament. Both are compared with a previous-plans baseline; not every department gets a real-terms rise, and the detail comes at the 2027 spending review.

7. Who Gains — and Who Pays More?

✅ Likely to gain

  • Households in bands A–D in England (£100 payment)
  • Electricity billpayers (VAT kept at 0% to July 2027)
  • Minimum-wage workers (£13.21 from April 2027)
  • First-time buyers and families needing social housing
  • Energy-intensive manufacturers (20–25% off electricity)
  • Pubs, music venues and small high-street firms
  • Qualifying founders and staff with share options

❌ Likely to pay more

  • Savers with interest above their allowances and outside ISAs
  • Landlords with taxable rental profits
  • Owners selling a business worth more than £500,000 in gains
  • Banks (surcharge doubles for 15 months)
  • Operators of higher-stake gaming machines
  • Online sellers above £90,000 on a platform (VAT collected at source)

How much any one person gains or pays depends on their income, allowances, business structure and eligibility. These lists show the direction of the changes, not individual outcomes.

Explore More Timelines

8. Key Dates: What Happens Next

Selected start dates, not every measure. Some still need legislation or guidance.

29 Oct 2026

Lifetime ISA charge cut for pricier first homes

Takes effect the day after the Budget

The withdrawal charge falls from 25% to 20% for first-home purchases above the £450,000 Lifetime ISA cap.

Your First Home pre-registration closes

Full applications open February 2027

Would-be buyers pre-register by the end of December 2026; first equity loans are due in April 2027.

£100 energy payment and bank surcharge begin

Households in bands A–D, EnglandBanks: 6% from 1 January

Councils start paying the one-off £100. The Bank Corporation Tax Surcharge rises to 6% until 31 March 2028.

£100 one-offUp to 20m homes
1 Feb 2027

Alcohol duty changes

Small Producer Relief made more generous

Alcohol duty changes take effect, with more relief for small producers.

The big start date

1 April: wages6 April: tax year

National Living Wage £13.21; savings and property income taxed at 24/44/49%; BADR limit £500,000; Founders’ Relief, EMI2 and the £3,000 Trading Allowance begin; manufacturers’ electricity discount starts; ~£50 off the price cap from the VAT extension.

£13.21/hr24% savings taxBADR £500k
1 Jul 2027

Temporary reliefs scheduled to end

Unless extended again

Electricity VAT extension, the 5p fuel-duty cut and freeze, the red-diesel cut and the HGV road tax holiday all run to this point.

Online marketplaces collect VAT

£90,000 sales threshold per platform

Platforms become responsible for VAT on qualifying sales by UK sellers.

E-invoicing, new payment schedule and First Time Buyer ISA

Longer-term reforms

VAT e-invoicing becomes mandatory, Payments on Account become more frequent, and the First Time Buyer ISA replaces the Lifetime ISA for new savers.

🏛️ Fast Facts

  • Delivered 28 October 2026, Chancellor John Healey’s first Budget after succeeding Rachel Reeves.
  • The OBR published its October 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook the same day.
  • Policy measures add £8bn to borrowing in 2026–27, then cut it by about £7bn a year on average from 2029–30, per the OBR.
  • Net debt interest is forecast at about £101bn this year, rising to £133bn in 2031–32.
  • Higher energy prices linked to conflict in the Middle East are the main reason the OBR cut its 2027 growth forecast.
Is the UK Budget 2026 the same as the Autumn Budget 2026?
Yes. The Budget delivered on 28 October 2026 is often called the Autumn Budget 2026. It came with the OBR’s October 2026 forecast.
Do I need to apply for the £100 energy payment?
It is delivered through the council tax system for bands A–D in England. Your council should explain how it pays you; watch for its letter and be wary of anyone asking for bank details by text or phone call.
Does the savings tax rise affect my ISA?
No. Interest earned inside an ISA stays tax-free, and the cash ISA allowance stays at £20,000. The higher rates apply only to taxable interest outside ISAs and above your allowances.
Will petrol get cheaper after the Budget?
Not necessarily. The Budget keeps the 5p fuel-duty cut and freeze to 1 July 2027, which stops tax pushing prices up, but crude oil prices, the exchange rate and retailer margins still decide the pump price.
Did National Insurance go up in the 2026 Budget?
No. National Insurance rates are unchanged, as are the headline rates of income tax and VAT.

Frequently Asked Questions

When was the UK Budget 2026 announced?
Chancellor John Healey delivered it to Parliament on Wednesday 28 October 2026, alongside the OBR’s October 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.
Who presented the UK Budget 2026?
John Healey, the Chancellor of the Exchequer. It was his first Budget after succeeding Rachel Reeves.
Did the UK Budget 2026 increase income tax?
It did not raise the headline income tax rates on earnings. It did raise income tax rates on savings interest and property income, to 24%, 44% and 49% from 6 April 2027.
What is the Household Energy Payment?
A one-off £100 payment for households in council tax bands A to D in England from January 2027, delivered through the council tax system. The programme costs £2.6 billion and covers up to 20 million households.
Is the £100 energy payment monthly?
No. It is a single £100 payment under the announced scheme.
Do Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland get the £100 payment?
The £100 scheme is for England. The devolved governments receive Barnett formula funding to provide comparable support in their own way.
How long is the electricity VAT cut extended?
The 0% VAT rate on domestic electricity in Great Britain is extended to July 2027. The government expects it to lower the annual price cap by around 50 pounds from April 2027.
What is the National Living Wage from April 2027?
£13.21 an hour for workers aged 21 and over from 1 April 2027, up 3.9% from £12.71. The 18 to 20 rate rises to £11.27, and the 16 to 17 and apprentice rates to £8.31.
How much more will a full-time minimum wage worker earn?
The government estimates about £910 a year more in gross pay. Take-home pay rises by less after income tax and National Insurance.
What are the new savings income tax rates?
From 6 April 2027: 24% basic, 44% higher and 49% additional rate, up from 20%, 40% and 45% in 2026 to 2027. The rise combines two points announced in Budget 2025 and two more in Budget 2026.
How much more tax will I pay on 1,000 pounds of savings interest?
If the full 1,000 pounds is taxable at the basic rate, tax rises from 200 pounds at 20% to 240 pounds at 24%, so 40 pounds more. Interest covered by your Personal Savings Allowance or held in an ISA is not taxed.
What changes for landlords in the 2026 Budget?
From 6 April 2027, taxable property income is taxed at 24%, 44% and 49% in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. A basic-rate landlord with 10,000 pounds of taxable profit would pay about 400 pounds more a year.
What happened to Business Asset Disposal Relief?
Its lifetime limit falls from 1 million pounds to 500,000 pounds from 6 April 2027. The 18% rate stays.
What is Founders’ Relief?
A new capital gains relief from 6 April 2027: a 10% rate on up to 10 million pounds of lifetime gains for qualifying founders of high-growth, innovative companies. It is not a general 10% rate for all business owners.
Is the cash ISA allowance being cut?
No. The annual cash ISA allowance stays at 20,000 pounds, reversing a previously planned cut.
What is the Your First Home scheme?
A 4.7 billion pound equity-loan scheme to help about 70,000 first-time buyers in England, with loans of up to 20%, deposits from 2.5% and five years interest-free. First loans are due in April 2027.
What is the First Time Buyer ISA?
A new ISA from April 2029 replacing the Lifetime ISA for new savers: up to 4,000 pounds a year, a 25% government bonus and homes up to 450,000 pounds, with no upper age limit.
How much is going into social housing?
An extra 1.5 billion pounds for around 10,000 social and affordable homes in England, prioritising Social Rent, taking the programme above 40 billion pounds over 10 years.
What does the Budget do for pubs and shops?
Pubs, music venues and social clubs get an extra 20% business rates cut; about 70,000 more retail, hospitality and leisure businesses pay no rates; and other such properties get a two-year rates freeze.
What is the fuel duty position?
The 5p per litre fuel-duty cut and freeze is extended to 1 July 2027, along with the red-diesel cut and the HGV road tax holiday.
What does the OBR forecast for UK growth?
Real GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026, 1.0% in 2027, 1.6% in 2028, 1.8% in 2029, 1.7% in 2030 and 1.6% in 2031.
When will UK inflation return to 2%?
The OBR expects CPI inflation to peak at around 3.75% in early 2027 and fall back to the 2% target in 2028, assuming energy prices decline in line with market pricing.
What is the OBR borrowing forecast?
Public sector net borrowing falls from 4.2% of GDP in 2026 to 2027 to 1.8% in 2031 to 2032, and the current budget moves into surplus from 2029 to 2030.
What does the OBR expect for unemployment?
Unemployment peaks at just above 5% in the second quarter of 2027, then falls towards 4.1% by the end of the forecast.
Is this article tax advice?
No. It summarises announced policy and official forecasts as published on 28 October 2026. Check HMRC guidance or a qualified adviser for your own situation.

📚 Update Log

29 Oct 2026: Published. Figures checked against the HM Treasury Budget document, the HMRC rates annex and the OBR’s October 2026 outlook. Savings and property rates shown against the 2026–27 rates actually in force (20/40/45%).

Next update: when HMRC publishes detailed guidance, Finance Bill text changes any start date, or councils confirm how the £100 payment is made.

Conclusion: Relief Now, Reform Later, Savers Pay

The UK Budget 2026 aims to take the edge off energy costs and low pay without breaking the fiscal rules. For most households the visible wins are modest and dated: £100 in January, about £50 off the price cap in April, a 50p-an-hour pay rise for the lowest paid. The costs fall on narrower groups — savers with interest outside ISAs, landlords, business sellers and banks.

Whether it works depends less on Budget day than on what energy prices, interest rates and productivity do next. The OBR’s own range shows borrowing could swing by tens of billions either way.

⚠️ Editorial Note

This page summarises announced policy and official forecasts as published on 28 October 2026. Measures may change during legislation, and OBR figures are forecasts. It is general information, not personal tax or financial advice. Content is editorial and AI-assisted, compiled from publicly available sources, and may contain inaccuracies.

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