Europe’s Energy Crisis: A Timeline of Challenges and Resilience

Gas hits its highest price in nearly four years as storage sits below 75% Prices and storage

Market reports said front-month TTF touched €90 per megawatt-hour on 20 October for the first time in nearly four years, and traded near €92 on 23 October, the highest since December 2022 (IndexBox; TokenPost). EU storage was 74.26% full on 20 October against 82.84% a year earlier, with Germany at 61.2%, according to GIE AGSI+ data quoted by IndexBox. Reasons cited were doubt over whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will resume, the suspension of Qatari LNG, low inventories, Norwegian supply disruptions and colder weather.

Both reports are market commentary, not official statistics, so check the GIE AGSI+ and ICE data before quoting a figure. IndexBox, quoting Bloomberg, noted that prices were still well below the previous crisis peaks and that governments had not reinstated price caps or tax cuts.

The IEA chief is reported warning of winter risk Prices and storage

Azernews reported on 25 August that IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said Europe could face serious risks this winter because of Middle East supply disruption and the suspension of Russian LNG. The same report put European storage at 61.6% full against 74% a year earlier, and TTF at €68.36 per megawatt-hour (Azernews).

This is a paraphrase in a regional outlet. AiTimeline did not find a transcript or an IEA statement carrying those words, so treat it as reported, not as an IEA quotation. The IEA’s own written assessment is in its quarterly gas report (next entry).

The IEA’s gas report: demand down, LNG losses until 2030, storage short Prices and storage

The IEA said the Middle East war had dealt “a major supply shock” to gas markets and expected global gas demand to fall by about 0.5% in 2026, the third annual decline this decade. It put cumulative LNG supply losses for 2026–2030 at about 140 billion cubic metres, equal to 15% of the new LNG supply due over that period, with damage at Ras Laffan in Qatar the largest part (IEA, Gas Market Report Q3-2026).

For Europe it found EU storage at the end of June more than 15 bcm (23%) below the five-year average. Reaching an 80% fill by the start of winter would need about 7 bcm more injections than last year in July–October, and a 90% fill about 18 bcm more. LNG was Europe’s largest gas source at almost 39% in the first half of 2026, with the United States above 60% of LNG deliveries and Russia second at 14%.

A US–Iran interim deal eases prices, but LNG flows stay low Gas supply and geopolitics

The IEA said the United States and Iran reached an interim agreement in mid-June intended to give a framework for fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. LNG carrier transit rose after the announcement but stayed at only a fraction of pre-conflict levels. TTF month-ahead fell 6% between 15 and 26 June. The IEA’s forecast assumed the Strait would fully reopen in the third quarter and Qatari and UAE LNG would ramp up between July and October (IEA).

That assumption had not been met by late October, according to the market reports above, which cite continuing doubt over LNG shipping through Hormuz.

The first Russian gas bans take effect EU policy response

Under the regulation, short-term Russian LNG contracts were banned from 25 April and short-term Russian pipeline contracts from 17 June 2026 (IEA; oenergetice.cz). The IEA expected the pipeline ban to cut Russian piped flows in the second half of the year. Russia was still Europe’s second-largest LNG supplier in the first half of 2026 with a 14% share, mostly delivered to Belgium, France and Spain.

Storage ends the winter near 28% Prices and storage

European storage finished winter 2025/26 about 28% full against a five-year average of 41% (US EIA). The EU regulator ACER said stocks fell below 30%, near nine-year lows, because of a lower starting point and high net withdrawals in a winter it described as colder than recent ones, especially in the first quarter (ACER). The IEA said the EU had already entered the 2025/26 winter with stocks about 13% lower than a year before.

Strikes on gas fields and Ras Laffan deepen the LNG loss Gas supply and geopolitics

ACER recorded an Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars facilities on 18 March, followed by an Iranian retaliatory attack on Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar that curtailed about 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity; it said Qatar expected three to five years to repair the damage (ACER). The IEA said spot prices in Asia and Europe reached their highest monthly averages since January 2023 in March (IEA).

The war closes Hormuz and Qatar halts LNG Gas supply and geopolitics

The IEA said the war that broke out at the end of February led to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost 20% of global LNG supply had passed. The US EIA dated the closure to 28 February and said QatarEnergy declared force majeure on 4 March; no laden LNG vessel was known to have crossed between 1 March and 24 April (US EIA; IEA). ACER reported TTF rising about 70% week on week and said Qatar had supplied about 7% of EU LNG imports in winter 2025/26 (ACER).

ACER’s April assessment judged the 2026 shock smaller than 2022–23 so far: a global price shock rather than a loss of pipeline gas, with about 5% of EU consumption at risk against 45% in 2022. That judgement was made in April, before prices climbed to nearly €90 in October.

The EU adopts a legal ban on Russian gas EU policy response

EU governments gave final approval to the stepwise phase-out of Russian gas on 26 January; the regulation entered into force on 3 February (Jones Day). Short-term LNG contracts end from 25 April and short-term pipeline contracts from 17 June 2026; long-term LNG contracts end on 1 January 2027, and long-term pipeline contracts on 30 September 2027, or no later than 1 November 2027 if storage targets are hard to meet. Hungary and Slovakia voted against, and Hungary said it would challenge the ban at the EU’s Court of Justice (oenergetice.cz).

Russian gas falls to 12% of EU supply; solar and wind beat fossil fuels Demand and clean power

The Commission reported that Russian gas accounted for 12% of the EU’s gas in 2025, down from 45% in 2021, and that Russian oil fell to 2% of oil imports from 43%. It said that in 2025 the EU produced more electricity from solar and wind than from fossil fuels for the first time, and that gas consumption was 13% lower than in 2022. The same page says energy prices “need further stabilisation” and that sectors such as transport remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels (European Commission).

In February 2025 the Commission proposed an Affordable Energy Action Plan, noting that EU energy prices remain structurally high and hurt households and industrial competitiveness.

Russian gas transit through Ukraine ends Gas supply and geopolitics

Ukraine’s gas transmission operator said its agreement with Gazprom expired at 7am Kyiv time on 1 January 2025 and that flows from the Sudzha entry point were halted. Gazprom blamed Ukraine’s refusal to extend it; Ukraine said it would not allow gas to cross its territory if it benefited Russia financially (S&P Global). Bruegel noted that Ukrainian transit had fallen from about 11% of EU gas imports in 2021 to about 5%, with Austria, Hungary and Slovakia most exposed (Bruegel).

Dependence is still 57% as storage and solar break records Prices and storage

Eurostat put the EU’s energy import dependency at 57% in 2024: net imports met nearly 60% of energy needs. Oil and petroleum products were 67% of energy imports and natural gas 24%. The United States supplied the largest share of imported oil (16%) and Norway the largest share of imported gas (30%); dependency ranged from 98% in Malta to 5% in Estonia (Eurostat).

The Commission said storage was 95% full at the start of winter 2024/25, with the 90% target passed in August. Ember found solar produced 11% of EU electricity in 2024, ahead of coal at 10% (Commission; Ember).

Prices retreat from the peak and the EU adds record solar Demand and clean power

Gas prices fell sharply from the 2022 peak; Argus described the front-month TTF as having “returned from the stratosphere” a year after its record (Argus). The EU installed a record 55.9 GW of solar in 2023, taking its fleet to 263 GW (SolarPower Europe). EU countries also agreed a Market Correction Mechanism in February 2023, a price-triggered safeguard that stayed in force until January 2025 and, the Commission says, was never triggered (Commission).

Ministers agree a gas price safeguard EU policy response

EU energy ministers reached political agreement on a Market Correction Mechanism to protect citizens and the economy against excessively high gas prices (Council of the EU). It would activate automatically if month-ahead TTF exceeded €180/MWh for three working days and was also €35 above a global LNG reference price (Commission).

Emergency rules cut power use and cap windfall revenues EU policy response

Ministers reached political agreement on 30 September 2022 on common measures to lower energy prices (Council of the EU). The package cut electricity demand by 10% overall, with a binding 5% cut at peak hours; capped revenues of low-cost generators such as nuclear, lignite and renewables at €180/MWh and redistributed the surplus to consumers; and added a temporary solidarity contribution on excess profits in oil, gas, coal and refining (Commission). The measures expired in 2023.

Nord Stream is damaged by explosions Gas supply and geopolitics

Leaks appeared in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines on 26 and 27 September, weeks after Gazprom stopped deliveries through Nord Stream 1 on 31 August citing equipment failure. Sweden’s security service confirmed in November that the damage was deliberate and found explosive remains. NATO called it sabotage; Russia blamed British navy personnel, which London denied (SBS). AiTimeline found no source that settles who was responsible.

TTF reaches its record Prices and storage

Argus reports that front-month TTF hit an all-time high of about €319/MWh on 26 August 2022 and has not exceeded it since (Argus). Other series put contract highs between roughly €339 and €345, depending on the contract and the measure. ACER later summarised the 2022–23 shock as a price reaction of about triple pre-crisis levels (ACER).

EU countries agree to cut gas use by 15% EU policy response

The Commission proposed “Save gas for a safe winter” on 20 July 2022, and the Council adopted the coordinated demand-reduction regulation on 5 August (European Commission). The 15% cut was voluntary for winter 2022/23, was later extended to winter 2023/24, and in March 2024 the Council recommended keeping voluntary measures until March 2025 (Commission).

Mandatory gas storage rules are adopted EU policy response

The Gas Storage Regulation was adopted on 27 June 2022 (European Commission). Storage facilities must be filled to 90% by 1 November each year; the first-year target in 2022 was lower, at 80% (Commission).

REPowerEU sets out how to end Russian fossil fuels EU policy response

The Commission published its REPowerEU communication on 8 March 2022 and the detailed REPowerEU plan on 18 May. It set out three levers: saving energy, diversifying supply and replacing fossil fuels with faster renewables roll-out (European Commission). It aimed for independence from Russian fossil fuels by 2027.

Russia cuts gas to several EU members Gas supply and geopolitics

Russia cut or reduced gas supplies to Bulgaria, Poland, Finland, the Netherlands and Denmark in April and May 2022, before halting Nord Stream 1 on 31 August (SBS).

Russia invades Ukraine and the crisis becomes a security emergency Gas supply and geopolitics

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Before the war it supplied about 45% of EU gas imports and 43% of oil imports (European Commission). ACER later described the 2022–23 shock as a regional supply shock that put about 45% of EU consumption at risk and lasted around two years (ACER). For the war itself, see AiTimeline’s Russia–Ukraine war timeline.

The Commission publishes a toolbox for high energy prices EU policy response

The Commission’s communication “Tackling rising energy prices: a toolbox for action and support” set out what governments could do within existing EU rules to protect vulnerable consumers, after a spike in wholesale prices in 2021 (European Commission).

The price pressure had begun before the invasion, as demand recovered after the pandemic. The invasion intensified an existing vulnerability rather than creating it.

A Russia–Ukraine dispute cuts gas to Europe in mid-winter Gas supply and geopolitics

After Russia and Ukraine failed to agree a new contract, Gazprom cut supplies for Ukraine on 1 January and Europe stopped receiving Russian gas through Ukraine by 7 January. More than 15 countries were affected, Slovakia declared a state of emergency, and schools and factories shut in parts of eastern and central Europe (Yale Global). Flows resumed around 20 January after a deal (Al Jazeera).

The Iranian revolution triggers a second oil shock Oil shock

The revolution cut Iranian output by 4.8 million barrels a day, about 7% of global supply, by January 1979, and prices more than doubled between April 1979 and April 1980 (Kuwait Times, citing the IEA). The WEF notes the revolution caused global crude production to fall by about 7% (World Economic Forum).

Arab oil producers announce an embargo and prices roughly quadruple Oil shock

After the October 1973 war, Arab oil-producing countries announced an embargo on states supporting Israel; the US State Department’s history office describes it as a response to the US decision to re-supply Israel (Office of the Historian). Oil rose from $2.90 to $11.65 a barrel between October 1973 and January 1974 (World Economic Forum). CVCE dates the end of the embargo to 18 March 1974 (CVCE). The shock helped inspire the creation of the International Energy Agency. For the wider story see AiTimeline’s OPEC timeline.