Far-Right Rise in Germany: From Postwar Taboo to the AfD Era
AfD went from 4.7% in 2013 to 20.8% in 2025, then topped two German state elections in September 2026, still locked out by the firewall. Full timeline.
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For most of the 76 years since West Germany’s founding, one boundary in German politics held firm: far-right parties could exist on the fringe, but none became a durable force in national government. That boundary has now moved. Alternative for Germany (AfD), founded in 2013 as a small party opposed to eurozone bailouts, took 20.8% of the vote in the February 2025 federal election — second place nationally — and by September 2026 had finished first in two eastern state elections and was polling in the high-20s nationally, all while Germany’s domestic intelligence agency classified it as right-wing extremist and every other major party refused to govern with it.
🗳️ Wait — is AfD Germany’s government now?
No. AfD is Germany’s largest opposition party, not part of government. It won 20.8% of the vote in the February 2025 federal election (second place; CDU/CSU’s Friedrich Merz became chancellor in a coalition with the SPD), and by September 2026 it was topping state elections in Saxony-Anhalt (~44.5%) and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (~38%) and polling around 29% nationally. Germany’s other major parties maintain a “firewall” (Brandmauer) — a refusal to form governing coalitions with AfD — so despite its rising vote share, AfD holds no cabinet seats at federal or state level as of September 2026. Separately, in May 2025 Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (BfV) classified AfD as right-wing extremist, a security-monitoring designation AfD is challenging in court — that is not the same thing as a party ban, which would require a much higher constitutional bar that has not been met.
Germany’s Far-Right Rise: Key Questions
What to know before reading the timeline
- AfD did not start as an anti-immigration party. It was founded in 2013 around opposition to eurozone bailouts during the euro debt crisis; migration became central only after 2015.
- The 2015 refugee crisis was the pivot, not the origin. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to admit roughly a million refugees and migrants (“Wir schaffen das”) reshaped AfD’s political identity and pushed its founding economists, including Bernd Lucke, out of the party.
- AfD missed the Bundestag in 2013 by under one percentage point — 4.7% against Germany’s 5% threshold — then entered parliament in 2017 with 12.6% and became the largest opposition party after 2025’s 20.8%.
- An extremist classification is not a party ban. Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (BfV) labelled AfD right-wing extremist in May 2025; AfD remains legal, contests elections and sits in parliament while it challenges that classification in court.
- AfD’s support is strongest, but no longer confined to, the former East Germany. Its September 2026 wins in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania continued a pattern set since 2016, while its September 2026 Berlin result was its strongest yet in a western/former-West city.
- East-West economic convergence is real but incomplete. By 2023, average eastern German household net wealth (~€125,500) remained roughly half the western level (~€257,100), even as employment and incomes converged much further.
- AfD favours renewed Russian energy ties and opposes major elements of Germany’s military support for Ukraine — a position the Kremlin welcomed publicly in September 2026, as AfD figures and a senior Russian economic envoy discussed possible future gas-supply talks.
- The “firewall” creates a feedback loop AfD exploits. As AfD grows, more of the remaining parties must govern together to exclude it, which lets AfD portray them as a single indistinguishable establishment bloc.
- Polls are not elections. September 2026 national polling near 29% reflects current sentiment, not a guaranteed outcome of Germany’s next scheduled federal election in 2029.
How It Started: Postwar Germany’s “Militant Democracy”
Why a far-right breakthrough was considered unthinkable for so long
After 1945, West Germany’s postwar constitution — the Basic Law of 1949 — was built around what political scientists call “militant democracy”: the idea that a democracy does not have to stay neutral toward movements seeking to destroy democracy itself. Political parties can, under strict legal conditions, be banned by the Constitutional Court. Domestic intelligence services can monitor extremist organisations. Nazi symbols and Holocaust denial are criminalised. These safeguards, combined with the deliberately high bar for actually banning a party, reflected two lessons Germany drew from the Nazi era: that democracy must be able to defend itself, and that the state must not be allowed to weaponise “anti-extremism” against legitimate opposition.
Far-right parties did not disappear after 1945. The National Democratic Party (NPD) gained regional support in the 1960s and narrowly missed entering the Bundestag in 1969. But no far-right party became a durable national force for the following five decades — until German reunification, the 2008 financial crisis and the eurozone debt crisis of 2010–2012 combined to create the opening AfD would fill.
Who’s Involved
The parties and institutions shaping Germany’s political crisis
Alternative for Germany (AfD)
Founded to oppose eurozone bailout policy; pivoted toward migration, national identity and anti-establishment politics after 2015. Won 20.8% in the February 2025 federal election, becoming the largest opposition party, and topped state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in September 2026.
Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV)
Germany’s constitutional-security agency; began formally examining AfD factions in 2019 and classified the national party as right-wing extremist in May 2025, citing elements of its conception of German nationality that it says conflict with constitutional principles of equality. AfD is challenging the classification in court.
Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU-SPD government
Conservative leader Friedrich Merz became chancellor in 2025, forming a government with the SPD after CDU/CSU finished ahead of AfD. Maintains the cross-party “firewall” refusing coalition cooperation with AfD, even as that arithmetic grows harder with each AfD gain.
The “Firewall” (Brandmauer)
The standing refusal of Germany’s mainstream parties to form governing coalitions with AfD at federal or state level. It has kept AfD out of executive power so far, but forces broader, more difficult multi-party coalitions among its rivals as AfD’s vote share climbs — which AfD then uses to argue those rivals are one indistinguishable establishment.
East vs West: The Divide Behind the Map
Three decades after reunification, wealth has not converged the way employment has
Average Household Net Wealth, 2023
Employment and income gaps between eastern and western Germany have narrowed dramatically since reunification — but the wealth gap has not closed at the same pace. Decades of population loss, an ageing workforce, fewer corporate headquarters and lower accumulated private assets left many eastern communities feeling economically behind even as headline employment figures improved. That gap does not by itself explain AfD support — some of AfD’s strongest regions have relatively few immigrants, suggesting identity and political trust matter as much as direct economic contact — but it is one of the most consistent patterns behind the party’s electoral map.

Full Timeline: 1949 to September 2026
Reverse chronological — newest first
Kremlin welcomes AfD-Russia energy dialogue
What happened: The Kremlin publicly welcomed AfD’s interest in renewed dialogue with Russia. Reports described AfD leaders and a senior Russian presidential economic envoy preparing possible discussions about restoring Russian gas supplies to Germany.
AfD tops Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania; strongest-ever Berlin result
What happened: AfD finished first in the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election with roughly 38% of the vote — its second first-place state finish in two weeks. On the same day in Berlin, AfD did not win but recorded its strongest-ever result there, suggesting the rise is no longer confined to the traditional eastern strongholds.
AfD tops Saxony-Anhalt with ~44.5%, near a majority
What happened: AfD won the Saxony-Anhalt state election with roughly 44.5% of the vote, more than double its 2021 result and approaching an outright majority in the state parliament. Other parties again ruled out governing with AfD, leaving coalition arithmetic unresolved.
Friedrich Merz becomes chancellor; BfV classifies AfD right-wing extremist
What happened: CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz formed a government with the SPD after his bloc finished ahead of AfD in February’s federal election. Separately, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (BfV) classified AfD as right-wing extremist, citing its conception of German nationality as conflicting with constitutional principles of human dignity and equality; AfD rejected the finding and challenged it in court.
AfD wins 20.8% in the federal election, finishes second nationally
What happened: AfD received 20.8% of second votes — more than 10.3 million votes — roughly double its 2021 result of 10.3%. CDU/CSU finished ahead overall, but AfD became Germany’s largest opposition party for the first time.
“Remigration” report triggers mass anti-far-right protests
What happened: Investigative reporting revealed a meeting involving far-right activists and some AfD figures discussing “remigration” — a term critics feared could extend beyond deporting rejected asylum seekers to targeting people with broader migration backgrounds. AfD rejected claims it sought unlawful deportation of German citizens. Hundreds of thousands of Germans demonstrated against far-right extremism in the weeks that followed.
AfD tops Thuringia’s state election — a first since 1945
What happened: AfD finished first in Thuringia’s state election, the first time a far-right party topped a German state election since the Second World War. Other parties refused to form a coalition with AfD, so the result did not translate into government — but symbolically, a postwar taboo had been broken.
Russia invades Ukraine; AfD breaks with Germany’s response
What happened: Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered a historic reversal in German policy — rising military spending, an end to reliance on Russian pipeline gas, sanctions and support for Kyiv. AfD strongly criticised sanctions and weapons support for Ukraine, arguing Germany should restore economic and energy relations with Moscow, a position that found particular resonance in parts of eastern Germany with historic ties to the former Soviet Union.
AfD dips to 10.3% in the federal election
What happened: AfD’s federal vote share fell to 10.3%, down from 12.6% in 2017. Nationally this read as a plateau, but the party remained extremely strong in parts of eastern Germany, where a national average obscured a deepening regional realignment that would become the foundation for its later surge.
Domestic intelligence begins formally monitoring AfD factions
What happened: Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (BfV) began formally examining AfD, focusing particular scrutiny on its nationalist “Der Flugel” (“The Wing”) faction, associated with figures including Bjorn Hoecke.
AfD enters the Bundestag with 12.6%, becomes largest opposition party
What happened: AfD won 12.6% of the vote — more than 5.8 million second votes — entering the Bundestag for the first time and becoming the largest opposition party once the major parties formed a governing coalition without it. The same year, Thuringia AfD leader Bjorn Hoecke attacked Germany’s culture of Holocaust remembrance in a widely condemned speech, revealing how far the party had moved beyond its founding economic platform.
Regional breakthroughs across eastern and western states
What happened: AfD began winning double-digit support in western state elections and, in Saxony-Anhalt, took almost a quarter of the vote — an extraordinary result for a party three years old, and one that signalled the east would become AfD’s electoral heartland.
The refugee crisis reshapes AfD around migration and identity
What happened: War in Syria and instability elsewhere drove roughly a million refugees and migrants toward Germany and other European countries in this period. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to keep German borders open (“Wir schaffen das” — “we can manage this”) became one of the most consequential and contested choices of her chancellorship. Inside AfD, the migration debate overtook the founding eurozone-crisis platform; the party’s more moderate economic wing lost influence and founder Bernd Lucke left.
European Parliament breakthrough; eastern state gains begin
What happened: AfD won 7% in Germany’s European Parliament election, sending seven AfD politicians to Brussels, and began winning seats in eastern German state parliaments — the first sign of the regional pattern that would define its later rise.
Alternative for Germany is founded; misses parliament by under 1 point
What happened: AfD was founded on February 6, 2013, led initially by economists including Bernd Lucke, opposing eurozone bailout policy and challenging Chancellor Merkel’s argument that there was “no alternative” to Europe’s crisis-management approach — the source of the party’s name. In its first federal election that September, AfD won 4.7% — short of the 5% threshold required for proportional Bundestag representation — receiving millions of votes but zero seats.
The eurozone debt crisis creates AfD’s opening
What happened: The 2008 global financial crisis evolved into a sovereign-debt crisis across Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Cyprus. Germany, as the eurozone’s largest economy, became central to bailout negotiations, prompting many German voters to ask why German taxpayers should support other eurozone countries’ debts — the question AfD was founded to answer.
German reunification brings an eastern economic shock
What happened: East and West Germany reunified after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. The former East German economy underwent enormous restructuring: state-owned enterprises collapsed or were privatised, unemployment rose sharply, and young people left for the west in large numbers. Reunification brought political freedom but also lasting economic dislocation in parts of the east — the origin of the east-west divide still visible in German politics today.
NPD narrowly misses entering the Bundestag
What happened: The far-right National Democratic Party, which had gained support in several regional elections during the 1960s, narrowly failed to clear the 5% threshold needed for Bundestag representation — the closest a far-right party came to national breakthrough in West Germany’s first four decades.
West Germany’s Basic Law creates “militant democracy”
What happened: The Federal Republic of Germany’s founding constitution, the Basic Law, embedded unusually strong safeguards against anti-democratic movements: the ability to ban extremist parties under strict conditions, domestic intelligence monitoring of extremist organisations, and criminalisation of Nazi symbols and Holocaust denial. This framework, built directly from the collapse of Weimar democracy and the Nazi dictatorship, still governs how Germany can respond to AfD today.
Should AfD Be Banned? The Legal Reality
Four different things people conflate into one question
Germany cannot simply vote in parliament to eliminate a political opponent. A party ban requires an extraordinary constitutional process before the Federal Constitutional Court, with a deliberately high legal bar: the party must be shown to actively seek to undermine the democratic constitutional order, with sufficient evidence and sufficient potential to achieve that aim. That threshold is intentional — Germany wants protection against anti-democratic movements, but also protection against the state weaponising “extremism” findings against legitimate political opposition.
| Term | What it actually means |
|---|---|
| “Far-right” | A political-science and media classification commonly used to describe AfD’s positioning; not a legal designation. |
| Extremist classification | An assessment made under Germany’s domestic-security framework (BfV, May 2025); enables enhanced monitoring but changes nothing about the party’s legal status. |
| Surveillance | Possible under specific legal conditions once a classification is made; distinct from any restriction on the party contesting elections. |
| Party ban | An extraordinary Federal Constitutional Court process requiring proof of active anti-constitutional intent and capability — a completely different, much higher legal standard that has not been met for AfD. |
Why the World Is Watching
Germany’s size means its politics don’t stay domestic
Agenda-setting without governing
AfD began as eurosceptic and remains deeply skeptical of EU integration. Even in opposition, a strong AfD can pressure mainstream German parties toward tougher migration and EU-sovereignty positions, since parties often shift platforms when they believe voters are moving toward a rival — changing policy without AfD holding a single cabinet seat.
A different Russia policy, still in opposition
Germany has been a major military and financial supporter of Ukraine since 2022. AfD opposes key elements of that support and favours renewed Russian engagement — a position NATO allies and Kyiv watch closely, even though AfD does not currently control federal government policy.
Schengen means German policy is European policy
Because much of Europe shares open internal borders, a significant German migration-policy shift forces responses from neighbouring governments. AfD’s rise already shapes how mainstream German parties campaign and govern on asylum and border policy.
Germany’s transition, contested at home
Germany has played a central role in Europe’s energy transition. AfD opposes major elements of current climate and decarbonisation policy, and its growing political weight could affect EU climate negotiations and automotive/industrial regulation over time.
Perhaps the deepest stake is symbolic. Postwar German political identity was built substantially around “never again” — democratic institutions, European integration, reconciliation and historical responsibility. A far-right party polling near 30% and winning state elections outright raises questions that go well beyond any single policy area: what postwar Germany’s political identity actually consists of, and how durable it is once the generation that built it is gone.
Seven forces feeding AfD’s rise — no single one explains it
- Migration: stricter borders and deportation policy are AfD’s strongest and most consistent issue since 2015
- East-West divide: incomplete wealth convergence and lower institutional trust in parts of the former East
- Economic stagnation: pressure on Germany’s industrial model from energy costs, global competition and demographic change
- Energy: higher costs since the break with Russian gas in 2022, which AfD proposes reversing
- Ukraine/Russia: opposition to military support for Kyiv resonates particularly in the east
- Distrust of established parties: AfD frames CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP as one indistinguishable establishment
- Cultural politics: opposition to progressive social policy connects AfD to a broader international populist-right movement
| Year | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 4.7% | Missed the 5% threshold — zero Bundestag seats |
| 2017 | 12.6% | First Bundestag entry — largest opposition party |
| 2021 | 10.3% | Declined nationally; remained strong in eastern strongholds |
| 2025 | 20.8% | Second place nationally — largest opposition party |
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⚠️ Editorial Note
This article compiles publicly available reporting and statements from Germany’s Federal Returning Officer, the BfV, Reuters and other wire/regional reporting on AfD’s rise, the May 2025 extremist classification, and the September 2026 state elections. Figures for vote shares, polling and wealth statistics are drawn from official and reported sources as cited by news organisations at time of writing and may be revised as later official results are certified. This is editorial history and current-affairs writing, not an official record, and may contain inaccuracies; readers researching specific figures should consult Germany’s Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiterin), the BfV and primary reporting directly.
Sources & further reading
Every dated entry above was checked against these references. Last reviewed 23 September 2026.